jewelry analysis Archives - Data in the Rough

Summer Wedding Season Kicked off by Britney Spears

July 3, 2022July 3, 2022Michelle

As June ends and I look back on the month one event that made the summer feel more normal was a celebrity wedding! Sam Asghari and Britney Spears were wed on June 9^th. What I love about this wedding is it was both Sam and Britney’s wedding. Pictures with them together and separate with highlights of the little touches that made their wedding special I want to highlight the jewelry for the wedding and how the jewelers used this to display their product. I also want to show the increase in interest of this event that needed to mentioned sooner rather than later if you are marketing.

Wedding Jewelry

The 4-carat round brilliant engagement ring was by Forever Diamonds NY. Sam helped design it and had it engraved with the word ‘Lioness’. Sam’s nickname for his strong and independent girlfriend (at that time). The jeweler’s Instagram gave some details to the ring.

This theme was seen again with Sam’s cuff links worn for their wedding. The photo looks like something out of a high-end advertisement, and I loved seeing the groom’s jewelry on display.

The wedding rings were created by a different designer Stephanie Gottlieb. Britney had 2 options for her diamond wedding band and Sam got a sleek platinum band.

Several necklaces were brought for Spears to chose from below is a tennis necklace that was one option.

The bride ended up with the heart shaped tennis necklace made with 27 carats and a 23-carat bracelet. Those pieces plus a pair of earrings cost over a half million dollars (USD).

Britney Spears in wedding dress and jewelry (IG of Britney Spears)

Marketing from Wedding

The couple did not use this as a marketing moment but there was some interest in the event. Looking at Google Trends the searches for Britney Spears peaked June 10^th the day news went out about the wedding occurring the day before. The trend declines the day after and by the 16^th the numbers have plateaued.

Some brands related to the wedding saw more searches, like Versace, the maker of Britney’s wedding dress. The peak wasn’t as high as it was for Britney but with Versace being so public it’s not surprising.

For other less global designers like Gottleib this gives an opportunity to try and introduce more people to her jewelry. One nice way that she did this was showing a necklace she gifted Britney to mark her wedding date.

Necklace gifted by designer to Britney to remember her special day

I saw this piece on the designer’s Instagram page 2 days after the wedding was announced. Her posts about a week earlier were getting 1,000-3,000 likes on average, the post for Britney’s necklace got over 6,000 likes.

To End With

Even if you don’t have a celebrity to buy your product yet, if you have a product or service that is similar to what is mentioned in the news, see how you can communicate that to your clients If you’d like someone to consult with reach out to me on Instagram or my email: [email protected]. I look forward to researching more on the Wedding Industry and posting about it. Thank you for reading my thoughts on Data in the Rough!

2nd Annual Analysis of Town & Country Jewelry Awards

February 5, 2019February 5, 2019Michelle

It’s that time of the year again! The 2^nd Annual Town & Country Jewelry Award results are in! I analyzed some pieces of the awards last year and you can read it by clicking the link. I’m not going to go through all those points from last year. I want to only look at one main issue I had with the awards and focus on how the awards have moved forward.

If you are a subscriber to Town & Country magazine you probably got a cover like this with your magazine last week.

Anne Hathaway in a multi-colored dress with a long rose gold earring. The rose gold earrings are by Vhernier, named innovator of the year in the Town & Country Jewelry Awards. A great designer but this earring choice was not a great statement of things to come.

The other cover on newsstands was no different in the jewelry department. This time rose gold and jet earring by the same designer, Vhernier.

There was something missing from the cover that I noticed immediately, compared to last year. Here is the last year cover if you don’t remember or if you haven’t read the post from last year.

See in the right-hand corner in red? It is the call out of the Town & Country Jewelry Awards! When I first saw this magazine, I was concerned that the awards were a one-time thing. For me that would be upsetting since I just renewed so I could receive this issue! I think for the Jewelry Awards Issue the accessories should be a bit bolder.

I was pleased to see a change in the voting. Instead of a small panel like last time (where 2 of the judges also won in the Media Category) this time more than 200 ballots were cast among Jewelry designers, collectors, T&C editors, industry experts and influencers. I was not on that list but the editor’s letter by Stellene Volandes mentioned the voting logistics in the first line. I really think this is better than leaving it to a select few that may have other interests involved. For me this issue got off to a better start.

Emmanuel Tarpin behind the scenes from Instagram account

The Categories

A list of the winners to discuss below:

I like that there are 12 categories, not too many but not too few. I do subscribe for the jewelry so I want to see plenty of it. A nice addition to the magazine was some of the categories also have finalists. For colored stones Chopard won, below is a stunning and colorful pair of earrings. The runners up were Irene Neuwirth and Martin Katz.

Some other categories to highlight:

Bulgari’s Wild Pop Collection: Bulgari is using more color in their creations and channeling the 1980’s. I was fortunate enough to walk by the New York store on 5^th Avenue and catch some of their masterpieces.

Tiffany’s Save the Wild Collection: I have been watching this collection since it launched in 2017. Tiffany has animal themed jewelry like the elephant brooch below from their website, in which Tiffany is donating 100% of the profits to the Wildlife Conservation Network, which includes the Elephant Crisis Fund. You can learn more on their website. What I love about this collection is the price range $250-$35,000, so you do not need a lot of money to own a piece of jewelry that gives back to nature.

One category not listed is for social media influencers. Again, I was glad to see the social media panelists no longer choosing the winners. I think that category was unnecessary given how little is proven on how much influence social media has on branding and shopping.

One more amazing Chopard piece from their website

Let me know your thoughts on the magazine. Is there a category you would like to see? I would like a few emerging designers, Town and Country does a lot with main stream, well known jewelry houses, that I think introducing some new faces would help make the magazine feel like a better source of what is happening in the world of jewelry. If you would like to see how to measure social media and its influence in your business send me an email and we can talk about your strategy and business goals. Return later as I get back into a more regular schedule of blogging on Data in the Rough! Thank you for visiting!

Michele della Valle Online Results: How Sotheby’s Fared in this New Venture

October 8, 2018Michelle

Sotheby’s first online auction dedicated to a single designer, Michele della Valle ended last Monday. In this post I will look at the results of the auction and what can be learned.

Non si può mai attraversare l’oceano se non si ha il coraggio di perdere di vista la riva.

The above saying in English is: You can never cross the ocean until you have the courage to lose sight of the shore. That saying feels right when talking about the recent online fine jewelry auction held by Sotheby’s. I will look at the sold versus unsold items and their statistics as a whole, then break it down by type and finally look at some individual pieces that did well at the auction. Also read my predictions and thoughts before the results here.

Sold vs. Unsold (All)

Out of the 111 items designed by Michele della Valle for this online auction only 66 sold. The percentage was 59% sold, 41% unsold. So over half meet the reserve and were sold. The items bid on meet reserve, but what were some of the basic statistics like average dollars of the sold item or number of bids? Below is a table answering that. Note dollars in Swiss Francs (CHF).

The average item sold for 7,884 and had about 6 bids. The most frequent price that sold was 7,500 and the lot had only 2 bids.

To get more detailed we need to look at the results by type.

Sold vs. Unsold (by type)

Above is a table with the counts of lots by type. Earrings were the biggest category at 44 out of 111 lots, next were brooches, then rings. Rings did very well, all but one lot were sold. A table below looks at it by percentage.

Only 38% of brooches sold, earrings saw 32% of their lots unsold. I’m looking more closely at types with ten or more lots to get a better feel of the category. I also looked at the min/max dollars for the sold lots.

Earrings had the largest range, going for as low as 3,000 CHF up to 27,500 CHF.

So, what were some of these high priced items?

Lot with the highest bid

That was a pair of earrings, lot 22, that sold for 27,500 CHF

Lot with the most bids

Lot 14 that had 24 bids, a blue topaz ring.

Piece highest above estimate

There are pieces that are unexpected in what they go for. In this auction a few types did better than others. A table with the break out below.

The rings did the best overall, being 1.6 times higher than the estimates. Earrings were next at 1.33 times. The piece that did better than estimated was lot 97, a pair of earrings that sold for 8.2 times above what Sotheby’s estimated. The final price sold was 21,500 CHF. The estimate was between 1800-2600.

Final thoughts

Obviously, the sale could have gone better, more pieces sold, bids higher, etc. Sotheby’s did a lot right in promoting this auction; they put the auction in their emails and had a video highlighting some pieces. What do I think they could have done better? Educating people on who Michele della Valle is and why his work is something that should be collected. Town and Country just put out about designers to collect, giving some context to where the market is going.

From my quote above, somethings you take those risks and swim out alone. Sometimes those risks work out and other times you need a life guard to steer you to a better path. If you are looking for some guidance in your small business strategy send me an email ([email protected]). Let me know what you’re thinking of trying or challenges you are facing. Until then thank you for reading and I hope you return soon for more Data in the Rough!

Results of Skinner Important Jewelry: Looking at Signed Pieces

September 30, 2018Michelle

Skinner Important Jewelry Auction results are in! There are many ways to look at the data. In the interest of time I am focusing on how signed pieces did versus the unsigned pieces offered. I will look at my previous observations on Evelyn Clothier and Aldo Cipullo, the top 5 items above their estimate, and overall signed versus unsigned.

A look back at my highlights

In my previous post, Evelyn Clothier had the most signed pieces at the Skinner Important Jewelry Auction. So how did her pieces do? Below is a table showing how her pieces sold at auction. Note results do not include buyer’s premium.

Evelyn’s pieces did well 18 out of 19 pieces sold. The piece that did better than its estimate, Lot 220 the gem-set necklace I highlighted in the other post. This necklace was only expected to bring in around $7,000 it brought in $18,450, 2.6 times better than the high estimate.

A little over half exceeded the high estimate. The item that didn’t sell was also the only bracelet offered by the designer. I tried it on and thought it was a sweet piece, so that was a little surprising.

The results of the next designer shocked me, Aldo Cipullo. The monkey and unicorn brooches that I was excited to see, were beautiful in person. A few pictures of them below.

Neither of these pieces sold. I really thought the unicorn would with an estimate between $5,000-$7,000, seemed reasonable. The monkey I thought was a bit too high, estimated for $15,000-$20,000. Still the unique design I thought would drive some interest.

Included is a table with designers that had more than 1 piece at auction and what percent sold.

There are several designers that either sold 100% or they sold less than half. David Webb had 3 pieces but only 1 sold. Are there other designer’s above that you wonder about the results?

Top 5 Lots

What were the top 5 items that did better than estimated? The top item was Lot 24, an Art Nouveau Turquoise Necklace.

Below is the table with the details.

If you notice only one designer made this list. One pair of Opal earrings by Andrew Grima. Andrew Grima has done well at past auctions in London and New York. Seeing his name make it in the top 5 did not surprise me. I was intrigued that a few more signed pieces did not do better than the unsigned ones.

18kt Gold and Opal Earrings, Andrew Grima

Signed versus Unsigned

How important is it that a piece is signed? The best answer is it depends. For example, pieces attributed to a designer, especially a well known designer like David Webb, that are not signed would not be as valuable to a collector. For Skinner the unsigned pieces sold better than the signed ones. I broke the numbers into three parts.

Top: The actual numbers, there were more unsigned pieces than signed. There were also more sold than unsold.

Middle: Percent of Sold and Unsold, overall 80% of the items sold, which is where the number is usually at from previous auctions.

Bottom: Percent of Signed/Unsigned lots sold vs unsold, Of the Sold Items 60% were unsigned, for Unsold the percentage is the same at 59% for unsigned pieces.

Platinum and Diamond Pendant/Brooch, set with old European-, full-, and rose-cut diamonds

So are unsigned pieces better? Skinner has lots of lots that are antique from Edwardian to Art Nouveau at their auctions, these pieces are usually unsigned and highly desirable for their design and beauty. The other side is that the signed pieces are not always as flashy as pieces from Christie’s or Sotheby’s, they are a bit more every day.

Conclusion

Storytelling is important. The designer pieces, especially Evelyn Clothier’s could have sold much better if there was a bit of context about the designer and pieces. This 19-piece collection was the perfect opportunity to spotlight the designer and make her story known. This collection was also owned by the same person. A talk or interview from the owner on what their relationship was and why so many pieces were bought, would have been one idea I would have tried to get more interest. I feel Skinner dropped the ball on this unique opportunity to focus on an American woman designer that has won several design awards and had her jewelry used on the red carpet. If you struggle to think of ways to differentiate yourself or your product contact me for ways to break out of the same old gimmicks and try something else.

Thank you and I look forward to you reading more from Data in the Rough!

Faberge at Auction: Lessons to Learn from Two Faberge Flowers hidden in a Shoe Box

June 23, 2018Michelle

Two Faberge flowers fell short of achieving a high estimate by Antique Roadshow when they hit the auction block in June. The article below looks at what key analysis were missed and trends that should have been focused on for future consideration.

Study the past if you would define the future. This quote by Confucius sums up my thoughts about what direction I am going and hope to be going. Digging deeper on issues always have ‘why’ questions that follow, why do I like this, why am I doing this and why do I want to continue this? Some of my whys are answered by looking back at what I love and why I loved it then and now. For the focus of this article I am looking at Faberge in the news, my all time favorite jeweler. A few weeks ago Hanson Auction in the United Kingdom sold two Faberge flowers. Not exactly news worthy at first glance but the story of how the pieces came to auction is worth a mention.

The two flowers are of a Dwarf Morning Glory and Barberry, that the owner had wrapped in a tea towel and stored in a shoe box! Pieces that sold for 340,000 British pounds ($451,1111) were tucked away in a small box for 40 years! Why did the owner wait until now to bring these pieces to light? The article in the Daily Mail claimed the man came to have the pieces looked at after seeing an Antiques Road Show episode in March where a similar item was valued at over 1 million British pounds.

Dwarf Morning Glory by Faberge sold at Hanson Auction June 11 for 180,000 pounds (hammer price). photo from Hanson Auctions

Barberry by Faberge sold at Hanson Auction June 11 for 160,000 pounds (hammer price). photo from Hanson Auctions

Initially these flowers were predicted to bring in 500,000 pounds by the Antique Roadshow but did not make that estimate. Hanson had a better estimate of 100,000-150,000 pounds for each flower. Why did these flowers fall a little short of the Antique Roadshow estimate? My theory: the Antique Roadshow didn’t look at recent trends in the industry and the seller didn’t take a good look at the market. Examples in an article by ArtNet News cite how auctions at both Sotheby’s and Christie’s either had the bids for the Faberge Flowers fall short of the Antique Roadshow estimate or did not sell at all.

Faberge flower estimated at 1 million pounds ($1.27 million) by Antique Roadshow in 2017. photo from ArtNet News

For the seller, besides the trends in selling Faberge flowers he should have explored the auction houses. Hanson auctioned the flowers off, but those two flowers were the only two Faberge items in the entire June Auction. Was that the right auction house for this sale? Should the seller have gone to Sotheby’s, Christie’s or Bonham’s to try and see if they would be better to sell the flowers? Sotheby’s just had an auction of Russian Works of Art, Faberge and Icons on June 5^th.

There are other questions to be answered but those are the two main ones for me. I enjoy analyzing the jewelry industry and am growing my business to do more consulting on social media, strategy and business investments. For anyone regardless of industry or where you are in your career one piece of advice from the story above is don’t hide some of those treasures or dreams you are holding on to. I have held onto some of my personal goals for too long and need to start making things happen! You can too!

Return later as I pursue more wisdom from Faberge and go back to what inspires me so I can build a strong business and help you find ways to improve yours! As always thank you for reading my posts on Data in the Rough!

Fred Leighton: Auction of the Jeweler who owned a Flower Shop

April 24, 2018Michelle

I learned a lot over the long weekend viewing the auctions for April. If you follow my Instagram account, you will see posts of jewelry that has been auctioned as well as pieces coming up that I got to see and try on! Although I learned a lot about the jewelry one piece of information left the biggest impression on me and that was the auction of Fred Leighton’s personal collection. This man was a jeweler to the stars. I never got the chance to enter his shop while he owned it but I got to see some of his celebrity pieces up close when Fred Leighton came to Dorfman’s in Boston.

Looking at the auction book for a little more about his life I came across an interesting insight into his life that resonated with me. On page 8 of the auction catalogue the first line of the second paragraph reads, “After opening a florist shop in Los Angeles, Mr. Leighton returned to New York in the early 1960s and purchased a shop specializing in Mexican crafts, silver and folk pieces on MacDougal Street in the West Village.” This stood out to me because I don’t come from having a background in the jewelry industry. I have no relatives that I was aware of that did anything with the jewelry business. I have a background in business but a love for jewelry. It was refreshing to see someone start out on one path and transition to another like Mr. Leighton. Breaking into an industry can be difficult. For those that follow my blog I have been sporadic with my postings over the year.

For 8 months I was unemployed and recently started a new job. It has nothing to do with jewelry which can have its good and bad points. Trying to find a job that blends your passion with your skills (math in my case) can be a challenge. Those that do not have those skills can look down on those with ‘less creative’ talents. For the next few weeks I plan to highlight designers and businesses that have done better at mixing art and science. I will focus on those with a less traditional background or those that have both a head for numbers and artistic flair.

This post is focusing on Leighton and his auction. As I went through the preview at Sotheby’s in New York City, I was struck by how many were coming to find one last hidden treasure that Leighton was holding back. I watched a few dealers going over necklaces and rings with loupes taking notes of the lots they liked. The impression I got was that many of these pieces meant something more than money to Mr. Leighton. I came across a set of Van Cleef & Arpels cat brooches with coral stones. These were so small and not at all like the animals you see now.

One of the associates told me nobody that day had even looked at them. I obviously took them out to see. I love cats and couldn’t bare the thought of these cute gems going unwanted. They did sell so some one was paying attention. But not all of Leightons jewelry sold. I looked at the total auction and divided the lots by jewelry and other (furniture, paintings, etc).

Break down of lots for Fred Leighton Auction at Sotheby’s

The top table is by the number of lots and the second table is in percentages. There were 229 lots offered 95 (41%) of the lots were jewelry; 134 (59%) were other items. Overall 84% of the items sold. By category jewelry did not do as well in % sold as the other items. But what about items that sold far above the estimate? Well I looked at that too!

Of the lots sold on average the non-jewelry category did better. Leighton not only had an eye for jewelry but also furniture, paintings and other beautiful, unique objects. The top 5 jewelry items that performed the most above their high estimate (buyer’s premium included are below).

To see a better view of the chart above click:

Top-5-lots-Fred-Leighton-Jewelry-Auction-Sothebys

I was surprised at what did so well and what did not sell. This snake bracelet of gold and rubies did not sell, but a pair of turquoise shell earrings by Leighton estimated to go between $600-800 sold for $6,875. These pieces were pretty but also quirky and many of them fun.

I remember seeing the documentary the September Issue, about getting the fall publication by Vogue put out, and watching some of the deleted scenes. My favorite part of the documentary was the deleted scene with Andre going to Fred Leighton’s shop to see some of his jewelry highlights. It starts with Fred Leighton himself waving some beautiful vintage fans in front of the camera and heading over to talk to Andre in more detail about the fans he is looking at. Leighton in smiling and singing as he makes his way to the editor. Enjoying himself through out the short scene. Fred Leighton did not come from a background in jewelry and in some ways, I think that was a strength. He had an eye for jewelry but was a business man by trade.

Above was how his jewelry was laid out in the cases. Leighton had miniature replicas of Asian inspired furniture that he had made. His family lent it to Sotheby’s because they did not know what to do with it or even if they wanted to keep it. Mr. Leighton, I have a feeling would have been pleased to know that his miniature furniture was a hit! I asked an associate about what would happen to these props, after the sale and with the interest that the public was showing they too may soon be on the auction block at Sotheby’s. Be on the lookout! Before I conclude I will let you see what the top 3 other items that performed above expectations.

Yes, that looks like a gold foot. Not sure if the auction house was off on the estimate or they had misprints, but Leighton did have some unique tastes and others liked it. He did not follow trends but created them and found items that match the style and quality that he wanted to be known for. I hope you will return soon as I get back into posting more on my own personal journey to try and blend my love of jewelry with my analysis skills. Please comment below or send an email if you would like to share parts of your own career journey. As the saying goes, it’s not where you came from but where you are going that counts. Data in the Rough is back!

Analysis: Town and Country 2018 Jewelry Awards

February 6, 2018Michelle

We are in award season right now. Movie and music awards have been reported on. The Super Bowl has been played in a winner take all game. Even the jewelry industry bestowed some awards. These awards were acknowledged in Town and Country’s February issue, the first issue to have a jewelry awards section. My question is for all award ceremonies, why? These results can be subjective. A bad call from a referee or hint of cheating leaves questions for the fans and some fierce debates. Music and movies are like art, what determines the best story or actor? I feel like jewelry is the same way. If you are not listed in Town and Country are you less of a jeweler? So why did T&C try this and what can it mean for you as a reader or business person?

I have a few theories as to the benefit, that I will conclude with. First, I will look at T&C’s explanation of the creation of these awards. Then look at the types of awards and follow this by addressing the business side of T&C. I am focusing only on the current issue, February 2018.

Why T&C created these awards

If you are like me, when I get a magazine that has an article I want to read I go straight to that page. If you did that with this article, then you would see these awards were made to acknowledge the year’s most notable jewelry moments. A clear explanation of what to expect in the section but not the why. I went back to the letter from the editor to see what they had to add. Stellene Volandes, T&C’s Editor in Chief, focused her letter on the next generation and how the readers used the magazine to discover ‘jewelry they should collect now to hand down later.’ A nice thought but one I look at skeptically given tastes and trends that differ between generations. I think a better reason for these awards is to highlight the industry but is it purely for the readers?

What were the ‘Award’ Categories

There were 18 categories:

Red Carpet Award of the Year
Collections of the Year
Stones of the Year
Philanthropists of the Year
Diamonds of the Year
Green Award for Sustainability
Watches of the Year
Retail Innovation of the Year
Gold Designs of the Year
Breakthroughs of the Year
Collaborations of the Year
Jewelry Champions of the Year
Pearls of the Year
Innovations of the Year
Events of the Year
Rediscovery of the Year
Fashion House High Jewelry
Legends of the Year

I like that they had about retail innovation and collaborations, topics that need to be explored more in the industry. There were three winners for each category. So, you are looking at 54 winners. 54 designers/businesses that will get some recognition. But who sees it?

David Webb, Gold Hammered Earrings, Webb won in Gold Designs of the Year

T&C Business Side

The T&C media kit outlines the reader. They average 50 years of age and mostly female. For a business looking to reach a range of ages I would press for more details and a better breakdown of who is reading the publication.

My Opinions

So here we are at my analysis. After a brief look at the magazine and awards I think another piece is advertising. Of the 138 pages (front and back cover included), 54 pages were dedicated to advertisements. Of the 54 pages of ads, 33 were for jewelry. See the table below:

Over half of the Ads were for jewelry. I know T&C has lots of jewelry advertisements, but I would like to see if this issue boosted that group of Ads. For those paying for placement in the magazine I would be asking some of the questions above about what reach this would have and how it would benefit my business.

Alexandra Mor, won Innovators of the Year, for her use of the Tagua seed. Ring pictured is made of a Tagua seed with a pearl in center.

I have a few more points I could go into, but I want to stop here and get some feedback from you. Have you seen the issue? What were your thoughts? Do you think this is something Town and Country should continue to do? Return in the next week as I get back on a schedule of regular posting after my holiday hiatus. Thank you for reading Data in the Rough!

Bonhams 2017 Fall Jewelry Analysis: The $8 Brooch Sells

September 24, 2017Michelle

A busy weekend for me. Lots of auctions coming up but let’s finish our look at the auctions last week. I plan to make this a shorter analysis. I am not including a past auction of Bonhams to compare. Bonhams removes the unsold items from its list after the auction so if you do not gather your data before that then it is harder to get. My plan then is to focus on this auction only. I will look at the stats and percentage of sold versus unsold lots. Next, we will look at the top performing items and then look at the highlights from the post last week.

Sold versus Unsold

Note my results do not include buyer’s premium.

Looking at the table below you can see the percentage sold and unsold by category (type). There were 180 lots up for auction. The types are in order by highest percentage sold.

I also listed the total lots in each category so you get an idea how much was for sale. Watches did well but there were only 4. Same logic can be applied to the worst performing categories that only had 1 lot up for sale in that category. The category with the most items was the Ring category. From the Skinner analysis, we saw rings did well in that auction too.

Let’s dive a bit deeper into the items. Below is the table with the mean, median, and mode. I describe the significance of using these metrics in the Skinner analysis.

The lots ranged from $2,000 to $1,500,000 for the high estimate. So it is no surprise to see the average be so far off from the median and mode. Those higher end products can throw off the average. We see that most items were around $10,000 and sold at or slightly (10%) above the estimate.

Were there any outliers? What were the best performing lots?

Top 5 Lots

I like to look at the lots that outperform their estimates, not look at the lots that made the highest sale. Sometimes those are the same as we saw for that emerald brooch at Skinner. This time that was not the case. There were no major outliers. I created a table of the top 5 lots that were above their high estimate.

It is a good mix of designer and early 19^th century that made the list. Below are the first 3.

Diamond and ruby line bracelet from 1925 was estimated to go between $5,000-$8,000. It sold for $20,000.

The emerald diamond ring sold for $22,000 and was estimated between $6,000-$8,000.

This fine diamond pendant from 1910 was thought to go between $8,000-$12,000 and sold for $28,000.

Past Predictions

So what about the items we looked at last week?

The wooden gold brooch by Cartier…

and the black opal that was estimated around $300,000.

Both went unsold. I was surprised about the brooch, it was estimated between $10,000-$15,000. Which I did not think was that bad.

Now to the final piece the story of the yard sale brooch bought for $8 and sold for…

$21,000. Bonhams predicted that right. They estimated getting between $20,000-$30,000.

All photos courtesy of Bonhams.

What are your thoughts on this auction? Do you agree with my findings? What was an item you were watching in this auction? The coming week is going to be fun! I will look at two celebrity auctions based in London. Check back this week for more on Data in the Rough!

Skinner Fall 2017 Fine Jewelry Analysis: The Emerald Outlier

September 24, 2017September 24, 2017Michelle

Week one is done of my auctions schedule. I know I was excited to see the results from the week. There were plenty of ways to look at the data from the Skinner Auction and I confess I took a bit longer trying to see what the best story to tell would be. So, after different ways of dissecting the results I am structuring the article to focus first on the mean (average), median (the middle value of the data) and the mode (the number that is repeated most often) with the % breakdown of the types of items sold vs unsold. Then look at our predictions from the last article and finally the stand out piece in the auction.

Items to remember I used results for both September 2016 and 2017 that do not include buyer’s premium. If the item was withdrawn I considered that unsold.

Sold vs Unsold

For both September Fine Jewelry auctions at Skinner, the percentage was the same, roughly 81% of the lots sold, leaving 19% of the lots unsold. But did the same percentage of items sell in each category (type)? Many did stay the same. Let’s look at 2017.

Now 2016. I have the categories arranged by highest percentage sold in each category.

I have bolded 2 categories of interest the rings and watches. In 2016 there were 18 watches on auction and 2/3 of them sold. For the 2017 auction there were 11 and 9 sold. I have been reading about trends in the watch industry. I will dig a bit deeper on my own to see about the designers and make. Those numbers though of the count are small. Rings are a bit higher in amount of lots. In 2016 there was a total of 113 auctioned. In 2017 the total was 94. As you can see this auction had great luck on selling rings, 88 were sold! I have not seen as much out on rings trending but it may be something to keep in mind.

So now for the statistics. Last year had over 300 more lots on auction versus this year. Skinner ended up getting a large collection to sell from a museum, I enjoyed viewing the lots and lost a bid for some earrings.

I looked at the data two ways, what were the statistics for the high estimates on the lots and of the lots sold how many times did they go above the high estimate? That calculation was the result $/high estimate.

Looking at the table above we see 2017 had items that had a higher estimated value given to them than last year. The same for median and mode. So higher estimated items in 2017 than last September. What about the results? Looking at the amount above the high estimate it looks like the auctions are about the same. The average says that the auctions had their items make the high estimate. This is why I like the other two metrics. The median shows that the results are less than the estimate. To get the median I arranged the numbers from lowest to highest and went for the item in the middle, or if it is an even number the average of the two middle numbers. The mode looks at the highest number of times the item is listed. So highest amount of lots for 2017 sold for 30% less than what Skinner predicted. In 2016 that number is 20%. Even though the amount per item was lower in 2016 the results were a little better.

Past Predictions

If you read my post last week I had 2 items that I was following. Those were the natural pearl pendant selling between $50,000-$75,000 and the Georg Jensen pieces.

Natural Pearls

The pendant from my last post.

The pendant did not sell. What does that mean in the auction world? Are we seeing a decline in interest? That pearl was not the only one on sale. Lot 383 an Antique Natural Pearl and Diamond Necklace, estimated to go as high as $15,000; sold for $29,000. Almost twice the estimate. The pendant may have been priced too high or there was a flaw that was not disclosed.

Georg Jensen

This designer did better than the pearls. Below are all the Jensen lots that were in the 2017 auction.

Only one Jensen item didn’t sell and 6 of the 10 sold above the high estimate. Here are the top 2 Jensen items.

.830 Silver and Amber Brooch, Georg Jensen

.830 Silver, Amber, and Green Onyx Necklace, Georg Jensen

Now let’s see how Jensen did with the other items. Below is the table for the top 5 items above estimate. Some items tied so more than 5 items are listed.

You see lots 7, 11, 10 all are Jensen. I think this Danish designer is still hot on the auction block. Wait, does that look like a typo, a lot did 10 times better than estimated? Yes, it did. If listed correctly, I checked the catalog and online, the last lot 384, an antique emerald brooch was the stand out piece of the auction.

The Emerald Outlier

This piece was listed to sell between $7,000-$9,000 and its final price was $90,000 (not including buyer’s premium)! What a way to end the auction!

I saw this small piece at the preview.

The emerald measured 9.55 x 9.50 x 4.65 mm and the brooch was less than an inch long. The interest lines in the origin of the emerald, it was a certified Colombian emerald, the finest you can get. Fun fact the emerald brooch and pearl necklace belonged to the same owner, Natica Inches Bates Satterthwaite. A native New Englander whose father worked at Harvard University. She passed away in 2015.

What did you think of my auction recap? Anything you’d like to point out or comment on? Next is a quick recap of Bonhams then more auctions to look forward to on Data in the Rough! Photos except the first one are courtesy of Skinner Auction.